Turning Hindsight Into Foresight™

Using History as a Guide

Elaine Tucci

Patty and I recently attended the University of Utah Law School's Stegner Center Symposium on the seven-state Colorado River Compact, which spawned the complex set of laws, treaties, cases, regulations, and other documents that govern use and management of the Colorado River. The fundamental question explored at the conference was whether the 1922 compact is resilient enough to meet today's environmental needs and to withstand the hydrological, climatic, economic, and other real-world changes of the next century. It was fascinating to hear the varying perspectives on the continued utility of this historic foundation of the "Law of the River." Asked to give the conference's opening speech, Patty's talk was titled "Transforming Hindsight Into Foresight." This proved to be extremely fortunate for the Center of the American West as this phrase - we discovered upon reflection - succinctly and acutely details what is so unique about the Center's approach to the varied and vexing dilemmas facing the West today.

Arthur Schlesinger once told us that "the great strength of history in a free society is its capacity for self-correction." We take this lesson to heart at the Center of the American West as our research, writing, and public outreach strive to transform the hindsight view of history into the foresighted vision of today's leaders and citizens. As Schlesinger reminded us, "in the end, a nation's history must be both the guide and domain not so much of its historians as its citizens."

Working to convey this lesson of historic framing, the Center has seized upon the epic tale of energy use in the West to draw enlightening observations from our past and transform them into visions for our future. In this newsletter you will read about What Every Westerner Should Know About Energy Efficiency and Conservation, the newest report produced as part of our energy initiative. And now, thanks to the kindness of Bill and Jane Reynolds, the Center - while still retaining its fondness for and commitment to spoken and written communication - is embarking on a new media format by producing its first television documentary series. The first episode will be the tale of energy use in the West past and present, with hints and lessons drawn toward the future.

We might remember that for thousands of years, when human beings wanted to dig, plow, harvest, refine, transport, clean, cook, heat, or build, they powered those activities with the somatic energy of human muscle and animal muscle, or the combustion of wood and the flow of water. And then, in an astonishingly rapid transition, human beings replaced those sources of energy with coal, petroleum, and natural gas. This change so thoroughly transformed the everyday lives of human beings that we are justified in drawing a distinction between "Pre-Fossil-Fuel-Era Humanity" and today's "Fossil-Fuel-Era Humanity," or between what we will call Homo Somaticus and Homo Hydrocarbonus. As challenges such as peak oil, national security, and climate change come on to the scene and move humanity haltingly toward the "Post-Fossil-Fuel Era," a deeper knowledge of the origins of our current circumstances could provide much needed guidance for the transitions bearing down upon us.

So why focus on the American West when these issues are of national and global importance? The West is the present and future linchpin for America's energy story. Geologic history has endowed the West with vast quantities of oil, natural gas, methane, and coal, as well as many other substances that make possible America's material standard of living and economic prosperity. And the variety and quantity of energy resources in the West, both carbon-based and renewable, ensure the region will occupy a central role in America's energy future. When it comes to the human relationship with energy, the West's usefulness as a microcosm reaches its peak.

Using history as our guide, we find that we live in wildly improbable times, and we manage to think of the improbable as normal. We might think with more clarity and make better choices if we could gain a sense of the truly fantastical quality of our current use of energy.

So stay tuned for this next evolution in the Center of the American West's work as we harness the power of hindsight and the medium of film in the service of clearer foresight for our collective futures.